Glenn has yet to lose by submission in UFC, but he’s very susceptible to takedowns.Ĭhoi will connect cleaner along the way, and while Caceres is tough to finish, Choi will just have more volume and go first, which will throw Caceres off his game. Dawson has successfully landed a takedown or more in all five of his UFC fights, and has attempted a submission in four of the five. Dawson’s grappling is going to be a big part of this fight and-as he’s done in all of his UFC fights-he will get the fight to the mat and control, looking to sneak a submission along the way. Ricky Glenn (4-3 UFC) enters this fight riding an impressive 37-second knockout of Joaquim Silva, and a new four-fight contract.Īlthough Glenn could care less about being a decent underdog here again, I believe the odds are right.
#HOW TO DO A SUBMISSION IN UFC 3 SERIES#
Grant Dawson is on a tear, winning all five of his fights under the UFC banner since earning his contract on the contender series back in 2017. LIGHTWEIGHT (155 LBS): GRANT DAWSON (17-1) VS RICKY GLENN (22-6-1) Although Vettori should cruise, the fact that this fight is now taking place potentially two weight classes above the original agreed weight of 185, I’ll pass betting wise and just enjoy the fiasco. I think that is excellent value - I would bet that down to +210 - especially if you want to take a shot on Daukaus third-round submission +2100.Vettori should be able to out-grapple Costa here if he gets in a pickle while attempting to trade with Costa, and this will be the difference-maker. Given how close Hawes was to being finished in the final round against Imavov, I’m inclined to do that here with an alternate round betting prop.ĭaukaus is +235 to win in Round 3 or by decision. However, I can sell the third round for minimal cost on PointsBet. I think Daukaus’s most likely win condition is via decision since he is an excellent volume striker. If you are looking for a big win opportunity - Daukaus via submission in Round 3 is +2100 on FanDuel. Daukaus is well known for his darce/brabo choke, which could be used here. If he grows tired of Daukaus’ constant offensive pressure we could see Hawes shoot for a takedown. I believe that Hawes could get extremely fatigued as this fight gets into the latter half. FanDuel has a clear disagreement on this prop hanging it at +420 - over an 8% difference in implied win probability. I’m not a fan of their submission prop odds, which come in at +260. That will require quite a bit of luck and I prefer to bet the value side of fights, which, in this case, lies with Daukaus.ĭaukaus is nearly even money sitting at -130 at PointsBet. If you would like to bet Hawes to knockout Daukaus - which every one of his opponents has failed to do so far - he is +425 to do so in Round 1. Even if he does, Daukaus has a solid submission offense - eight of his 10 victories have come via submission. Moreover, Daukaus profiles as a step-up in competition who typically gets stronger as the fight wears on.ĭaukaus has a 94% takedown defense rate per UFC Stats giving me little confidence that Hawes will be able to land consistent takedowns if he needs a breather. We have seen Hawes fail to get the early knockout and look lost in the octagon afterward. Stylistically this is a tough matchup for Hawes, who will have to sell out for a knockout early or risk being in a world of trouble later in the fight. Hawes immediately pivoted to his wrestling after Round 1 - a tactic that is unlikely to have success in this fight against Daukaus. Watching Nassourdine Imavov push forward while Hawes struggled to move in Round 3 makes me question his gas tank. Unfortunately, Hawes’ last fight raised all sorts of questions about his ability to fight after the first round. Hawes showcases quick-twitch, explosive movements that can be difficult to deal with. This is where we could see Hawes struggle. In three UFC fights, we’ve seen him continually pushing forward and setting a difficult-to-match pace. Kyle Daukaus is a well-rounded fighter who stands at 6-foot-3 giving him a slight advantage over his opponent.